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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Slumps To Fourth Month Lows Tuesday On Milder Near-Term Temperature Forecast As Early March Weekly Storage Injection Now Projected; Oil Prices Ease On US-Iran Talks Optimism; EIA Expected To Announce Large Crude Oil Inventory Build In Today’s Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Milder Temperatures Expand Quickly Eastward
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas extended losses to a fourth month low on Tuesday as the March temperature outlook continued trend milder. The front-month March 2026 contract fell by 7 cents or 2.3% to settle at $2.92/MMBTU, the lowest close since September 25. Among ETFs, 1x UNG fell by -2.4% while 2x BOIL shed -4.9%.
Prices continued to be pressured as the near-term temperature outlook hemorrhaged Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs). As shown in the Figure to the right, both the EMWF & GFS models have seen 14-day accumulated GWDDs tumble by nearly 100 GWDDs over the past 4-5 days to well below the 5-year average. Most of these losses have come in the March 6-11 period. As of early this morning, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for just 284 GWDDs for February 25-March 10, the second fewest for the period in the last 5 years and below last year’s 309 GWDDs. The 66 forecast GWDDs for March 7-11 would be a 5-year low by a...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
