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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Prices Retreat On Monday As Storage Surplus Nears +200 BCF; Weather Remains Supportive But More Is Needed To Pivot Sentiment; UNG Completes Monthly Rollover; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Triple Digit Heat Expands Across The Deep South
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
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Natural gas prices retreated on Monday, neatly erasing Friday’s gains. The front-month August 2026 contract fell by 5 cents or 1.8% to settle at $2.86/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG dropped -2.1% while 2x BOIL shed -4.0%. UNG completed its monthly rollover on Monday and, like BOIL, now holds exclusively T+1 September 2026 contracts ahead of next week’s expiration of the August front-month.
Gas prices continue to be pressured by expectations for a robust storage surplus heading into August. While the near-term temperature outlook is forecast to stay generally supportive—14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) remain at 5-year highs for the period—it is not enough to counter weaker fundamentals due to record renewable generation, lower LNG export demand, and a recent uptrend in production. As show in the Figure to the right, I project that daily storage injections will remain at or above the 5-year average into the first week of August. As a result, the surplus versus the...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
