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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Ignores Oil, Prices Tumbles To Fresh 2-Month Lows On Milder Temperature Outlook & LNG Export Slump; Gas Prices Not Yet Undervalued; Cooling Demand To Rise Today As Heat Builds Across The East
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices fell for a fourth straight session on Monday as the combination of a moderating second half of July temperature outlook and weak LNG export demand weighed on sentiment. The front-month August 2026 contract fell another 4 cents or 1.5% to settle at $2.90/MMBTU. It was the lowest close since May 14. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -2.2% while 2x BOIL slid -3.6%. This was in stark contrast to oil which surged over 9% to a one-month high as conflict resumed across the Middle East.
First and foremost, I expect prices were pressured yesterday by a more moderate 14-day temperature outlook. Over the weekend and into yesterday, both the GFS and ECWMF near-term models trended cooler across the Northeast and Great Lakes for the second half of July. As a result, forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) by both models have trended lower with the GFS losing over 15 GWDDs over the past 3-4 days to converge towards the 5-year average, as shown in the Figure to the right. As of late...
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