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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Fades, Still Records Small Gain, After EIA Announces Bullish, But Underperforming Storage Withdrawal; Projected End-Of-Season Storage Minimum Back Above 1700 BCF, For Now; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Northeast Chill Begins To Erode; Unseasonable Warmth To Dominate Next Week And Potentially Flip Storage Deficits Back To Surpluses
Friday, February 13, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for January 31-February 6, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -249 BCF. While this was an impressive 103 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and the 5-year high for the week, it did come in well below my -266 BCF projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the drawdown averaged a neutral 0.1 BCF/day tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average. This means that essentially the entire 103 BCF of bullishness was driven by temperature rather than supply/demand factors. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2214 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average widened to -130 BCF. The year-over-year deficit widened to -97 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, storage levels are now at the second lowest level for the date in the last 5 years, above only 2022.
Despite the bullishness of the Report, only three out of the five storage regions actually registered above-average withdrawals. The mild Mou...
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