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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Registers Third Straight Loss After Disappointing EIA Storage Report; Projected End-Of-Season Storage Minimum Stabilizes Near 1700 BCF; Natural Gas Undervalued But In Search Of A Catalyst; Gas Demand To Rises Today As Colder Temperatures Advance Eastward; Storage Withdrawals To Spike This Weekend Before Quickly Retreating
Friday, February 20, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for February 7-13, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -144 BCF. This was 8 BCF smaller than my projection and a slight 7 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged a slight 0.8 BCF/day loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average. This means that nearly all of the Report’s slight bearishness—around 6 BCF—was associated with supply/demand factors while weather was rather neutral during the week. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2070 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average narrowed to -123 BCF. The year-over-year deficit fell nearly 40 BCF to -59 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories remain at the second lowest level for the week in the last 5 years, above only 2022.
Three out of the five storage regions registered bearish withdrawals, led by the Mountain and Pacific Regions with both saw meager -2 BCF draws versus 5-ye...
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