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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Pulls Back After Monday’s Short Squeeze On Profit-Taking, Lower LNG Export Demand, & Slight Cooling Trend; Oil Rallies To Two-Week High On Dwindling Middle East Peace Prospects; Big Crude Oil Inventory Build Expected For Today’s EIA Petroleum Status Report; Gas Demand To Dip Slightly Today As Cooler Temperatures Infiltrate The Northern Plains
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Following Monday’s short-squeeze, natural gas prices took a breather on Tuesday with a small pullback. The front-month September 2026 contract retreated by 3 cents or 1.0% to settle at $2.77/MMBTU. This was tracked by ETFs with 1x UNG shedding -0.7% and 2x BOIL losing -1.3%. BOIL (and its inverse KOLD) continues its bimonthly rollover and now holds the majority of its futures holdings—60% versus 40%--in the T+2 November 2026 contract over the front-month contract. The fund will complete its rollover tomorrow. While this is a bearish roll long-term due to the contango between the two contracts (typical for this time of year), the most obvious near-term impact in price performance in the near-term will be a decrease in volatility for BOIL—underperforming during rallies but outperforming during pullback.
In addition to profit-taking after Monday’s rally, yesterday’s pullback was likely also driven by a dip in LNG export demand. Exports had already been struggling this Summer due t...
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