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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Prices Retreat In August Futures Contract’s Debut As The Front Month Despite Impending Heat Wave As Investors Eye Comfortable Storage Surplus; Front-Month Prices Now Undervalued; Gas Demand To Rise Today On Heartland Heat & Warming East Coast
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
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In its first session as the front-month contract, the August 2026 front-month natural gas contract opened the week deep in the red. After trading higher by over 1% in electronic trading overnight Sunday, the contract quickly gave up these gains to finish near session lows by Monday afternoon down 10 cents or 3.0% at $3.18/MMBTU, a one-week low. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -3.7% while 2x BOIL tumbled -7.8%.
Prices had initially faced buying pressure due to an upcoming heatwave. Yesterday’s model runs largely stabilized but my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was still calling for 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) close to 200 GWDDs and 5-year highs for the period.
I feel that yesterday’s selling pressure was driven by concerns over regarding a still-comfortable storage levels. As shown in the Figure to the right, I am now projecting consistently bullish daily storage injections over the next...
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