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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Recovers From Early Losses To Hold Above $3/MMBTU; Oil Soars On Building Geopolitical Tension; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal & Slightly Bullish Crude Drawdown In Today’s Twin Reports; Gas Demand To Begin Ramp Up Today As Arctic Air Shifts From Rockies Onto The Great Plains
Thursday, February 19, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices fell sharply out of the gates Wednesday morning before clawing back most of its losses to register a small decline. The front-month March 2026 dropped as low as $2.93/MMBTU before settling down just 2 cents or 0.6% at $3.10/MMBTU. It was the lowest close since mid-October 2025. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -0.3% while 2x BOIL added +0.6%.
In addition to the record warmth this week, natural gas prices have been pressured lower by strong production that has topped 110 BCF/day to near record highs again as well as by LNG exports which have teased investors with the prospect of rising volumes at the new Golden Pass facility only to see consecutive late-cycle downward revisions. On the other hand, yesterday’s late-session rally was likely driven by a modest cooling trend in the 8-14 day outlook. This forecast has been very inconsistent but the latest trend suggests a potential uptick in Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) after February 28, as shown in the Figure to the r...
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