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Thursday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Rallies To One-Month Highs Ahead Of The September 2026 Contract’s Expiration Today On Hot Early-September Temperature Outlook & Surging LNG Export Volumes; EIA Projected To Announce Bullish +19 BCF Injection In Today’s Storage Report; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today As Heat Continues Across The Deep South
Thursday, August 27, 2026
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In its penultimate session as the front-month contract, the September 2026 natural gas contract rallied on Wednesday. Prices gained 7 cents or 2.6% to settle at $2.84/MMBTU. It was the highest close since July 24. The September contract will expire at the close of trading today and will be replaced by the more active October contract, which closed Wednesday at $2.87/MMBTU. Among natural gas ETFs, 1x UNG rose +1.8% while 2x BOIL added 2.9%. The funds hold less-volatile October and November contracts, respectively.
I suspect that yesterday’s rally was predominantly driven by a continued bullish near-term temperature outlook. In particular, all signs point to persistent late-Summer heat across the major demand centers of the Deep South. As shown in the Figure to the right, 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) as forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models continued their uptrend on Wednesday. As of early this morning, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-...
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