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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Pulls Back On Friday But Still Logs Weekly Gain; Unseasonably Hot Early September Temperature Outlook To Drive Spike In Year-Over-Year Storage Deficit; Natural Gas Bears Hanging Their Hats On El Nino; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Heat Dome Expands East Of The Rockies
Monday, August 31, 2026
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Natural gas prices pulled back on Friday, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a solid weekly gain. In its first session as the new front-month contract, the October 2026 contract dropped by 2 cents or -0.7% to settle at $2.89/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed 1.0% while 2x BOIL eased -2.4%. Despite the pullback, on the week, the commodity still gained +4.1%, its third straight weekly gain. The gain was minimally helped by Thursday’s expiration of the September contract as the two contracts were nearly identically priced.
I suspect that Friday’s pullback was largely the result of profit-taking after the rally earlier in the week. This strength was driven by an exceptionally hot near-term temperature outlook. A large ridge of high pressure will keep a broad area of temperatures 5F-15F above-average across much of the Central and Eastern US, especially across the South. This late-season heat will extend into mid-September, as shown in the National Weather Service’s 8-14 day outlook in th...
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