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Monday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Tug-Of-War: Geopolitics Battles Bearish Early-Injection Season Temperature Outlook For Control Of Natural Gas Sentiment; LNG Export Demand At Record Highs Over The Weekend; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Latest Cold Snap Retreats
Monday, March 30, 2026
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Natural gas prices jumped on Friday as fears over escalation in the Middle East outweighed a bearish domestic temperature outlook to start off the injection season. The front-month April 2026 contract rose 10 cents or 3.2% in low-volume trading to settle at $3.10/MMBTU. On the week, the April contract finished exactly flat. The contract expired at the close of Friday’s session and will be replaced as the front-month contract by the May 2026 contract, which closed Friday up a similar 10 cents at $3.03/MMBTU. Among ETFs—which all hold May contracts—1x UNG rose +3.7% on Friday while BOIL added +7.5%. Despite some retreat last week, global natural gas prices remain markedly elevated. The Continental European TTF price point—the destination for the majority of US LNG exports—settled Friday $17.39/MMBL, up +32% versus last year, as shown in the Figure to the right. The UK’s NBP and east Asian’s JKM price points are up +42% and +55% year-over-year, respectively. ...
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