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As Celsius Energy continues to grow, costs and the time commitment to keep the site maintained build rapidly. For this reason, I am offering premium features for a small monthly fee to help support the site. These include:
-Daily Commentaries, a 1000-1500 word 5x per week discussion of natural gas fundamentals, trading outlook and strategies
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-Daily natural gas supply & demand data
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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Trades Sideways As Bullish Near-Term Temperature Outlooks Clashes With Soft LNG Exports & 200 BCF Storage Surplus; Oil Prices Extend Gains On Bab Al-Mandab Threat; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Build But Bullish Overall Petroleum Status Report Today; Gas Demand To Fall Today As Cooler Temperatures Sweep Across Great Lakes
Wednesday, July 22, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices traded sideways on Tuesday as investors searched for a new bullish or bearish catalyst to drive action. The front-month August 2026 contract rose by a half penny or 0.2% to settle at $2.87/MMBTU. Natural gas ETFs outperformed due to additional gains after the 2:30 PM ET close of floor trading with 1x UNG adding +1.1% and 2x BOIL +2.1%.
My sentiment here is unchanged. On Tuesday, the near-term temperature outlook largely held the course. As shown in the Figure to the right, the flagship ECMWF’s 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlook was roughly unchanged while the GFS chopped around but remained consistently above average. As of early Wednesday morning, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for a similar 195 GWDDs for July 22-August 4, a 5-year high for the period. However, a 5-year high GWDD outlook in July is far less significant in July than it is in January.
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