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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Hurry Up And Wait: Natural Gas Snaps Two-Session Skid, But This Isn’t The Beginning of A Breakout—Or A Breakdown; Temperature A Bearish Near-Term Catalyst, But LNG Exports & Powerburn Supportive Longer Term; Oil Rallies, Then Drops, On Evolving Iran Conflict; EIA Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Inventory Build In Today’s Status Report; Gas Demand To Drop Today As Temperatures Warm Across East & Central US
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas snapped a two-session losing streak on Tuesday as rising oil prices amidst Middle East tension dragged gas higher as well. The front-month April 2026 contract rose by 5 cents or 1.8% to settle at $2.94/MMBTU. However, later contracts were weaker which was reflected in natural gas ETFs which hold May contracts. 1x UNG was flat on the session while 2x BOIL added just 0.2%. Global prices were broadly lower with European price points TTF and NBP losing 4%-5% while Asian prices were off 2%-3%.
Yesterday’s trading action, especially in the later term futures contracts, reflects more of the same hurry-up-and-wait sentiment that I have been espousing in recent Commentaries. In my opinion, current levels reflect neither a good bearish or bullish entrypoint.
For the bears, yes, the near-term temperature outlook remains quite anemic with 14-day Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) still comfortably at 5-year lows, as shown in the Figure to the right. However, investors are...
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