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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Oil & Natural Gas Prices Both Rise On Thursday As Middle East Turmoil Continues, Despite Disappointing EIA Storage Withdrawal; Gas Prices Remain Undervalued, But Both Upside & Downside Are Likely Limited; Gas Demand To Hold Nearly Steady Today Before Surging Into Next Week Courtesy Of Late-Season Arctic Outbreak
Friday, March 13, 2026
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -38 BCF. This was 26 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and 6 BCF weaker than my -44 BCF projection. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged 0.8 BCF/day or nearly 6 BCF/week tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, similar to the 6-week range. This means that, if it weren’t for the modestly tight supply/demand imbalance, the withdrawal would have been around -32 BCF rather than -38 BCF. The tightness was due to the combination of new volumes at Golden Pass, stagnant production, low imports, and solid powerburn. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 1848 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average narrowed to -17 BCF. Th year-over-year surplus widened to +141 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories are now at the third lowest level in the last 5 years, above only 2025 and 2022.
All five storage regions registered bearish ...
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