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Tuesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Fades But Still Logs Small Gain On Monday; Weather Remains A Drag On Sentiment Even As LNG Exports Move Towards New Highs; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures Dominate the Great Lakes With Bullish Daily Storage Withdrawal Likely
Tuesday, April 7, 2026
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices rose to start the week, but finished well off their highs. After trading as high as $2.87/MMBTU early Monday morning, the front-month May 2026 contract ultimately settled up a modest 1 cent or0.4% at $2.81/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG added 0.2% while 2x BOIL rose +0.3%, both finishing near session lows.
Natural gas prices continue to face upside resistance due to a bearish near-term temperature outlook. Over the next two weeks, much of the Lower 48 will see unseasonably mild temperatures. This early in the injection season, heating demand losses across the Northern Tier will significantly outweigh early-season cooling demand gains across the Deep South in such a pattern. As a result, forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) over the next two weeks will be consistently at or below the 5-year average, with the exception of today when a widespread cold snap dominates the Midwest, as shown in the Figure to the right. As of Monday evening, my Consensus Model—which ...
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