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Wednesday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Pulls On Second Day Of Profit-Taking; Record LNG exports & Cold Near-Term Temperature Outlook Likely To Support Natural Gas Well Above Its Fair Price; EIA Expected To Announce Neutral Petroleum Status Repot & Bearish Natural Gas Storage Injection In Today’s Twin Reports; Gas Demand To Rise Sharply Today As Arctic Air Races East
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
Natural gas prices fell for a second straight session on Tuesday as profit-taking continued amidst record production and a robust overvaluation, even as arctic air prepared to advance eastward. The front-month December 2025 contract dropped 13 cents or 2.7% to settle at $4.42/MMBTU. The contract expired at the close of trading and will be replaced today with the more active January 2026 contract, which closed Tuesday down a steeper 19 cents or 4.1% at $4.48/MMBTU. Among ETFs, 1x UNG shed -4.0% while 2x BOIL lost -8.1%.
Prices continued their overdue pullback on Tuesday, driven by production which hovered near record highs of 109 BCF/day and a fundamental overvaluation of nearly 40% for the newly-minted front-month contract. This bearishness is opposed by a much colder airmass that is advancing rapidly across the Lower 48 as we speak which could soon put the breaks on the selling, overvaluation or not. As shown in the Figure to the right, Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) are poi...
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