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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Stages Oversold Bounce Despite Bearish EIA Storage Injection; Robust Overvaluations Could Point To Further Near-Term Weakness Before Next Buying Opportunity; Gas Demand To Fall Sharply Today As Unseasonably Mild Temperatures Expand East Of The Rockies; Gas Demand To Fall Further This Weekend Before Mid-Week Recovery
Friday, March 28, 2025
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for March 15-21, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +37 BCF. This was 9 BCF larger than my +28 BCF projection and was an ugly 68 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. It was the only injection for the week in the last 5 years. While mild temperatures played a significant role in the bearish injection, loose supply/demand imbalances also contributed. I calculate that, on a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged -3.1 BCF/day or 22 BCF/week loose versus the 5-year average. This means that roughly one third of the bearishness was driven by weak fundamentals with the remaining two thirds by warm weather.
With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 1744 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average narrowed to -122 BCF. The year-over-year deficit fell by over 70 BCF to -557 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, storage levels are still the second lowest for the week in the last 5 years but a...
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Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.
