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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Tumbles Below $3/MMBTU After Larger-Than-Expected EIA Storage Injection; Bullish Catalysts Remain Elusive As Bears Tighten Grip; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today But First Triple Digit Weekly Storage Injection Since 2023 Is Projected For This Week (And Next Week); Realtime Storage Deficit Versus The 5-Year Average Projected To Flip To A Surplus Today
Friday, April 25, 2025
This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covering April 12-18, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +88 BCF. This was much larger than my +71 BCF projection and was 30 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. It was also a 5-year high. Temperatures during the week were relatively neutral for gas demand and the bearishness of the injection was driven primarily by strong renewable generation and record gas production. On a temperature-adjusted basis, I calculate that supply/demand imbalances averaged 4.8 BCF/day or 34 BCF/week loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average, comprising the entirety (and then some) of the week’s departure from the 5-year average. This was the loosest that imbalances have been so far in 2025. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 1934 BCF while the deficit versus the 5-year average narrowed to -44 BCF. The year-over-year deficit fell only slightly to -478 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, inventories surpassed 2021 ...
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