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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Bounces Off Three-Month Lows After Better-Than-Expected Storage Report; But Anemic Gains Suggest Ongoing Concern; Projected End-Of-Season Storage Maximum Drops Back Below 3900 BCF; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Heatwave Builds Into The Northeast; Larger Injection Expected This Week Due to Much Looser Fundamentals; Daily Storage Withdrawals Possible Next Week As Heat Intensifies
Friday, July 25, 2025
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for July 12-18, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +23 BCF. This was 7 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average and my projection, both at +30 BCF. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the injection averaged 0.3 MMbbls tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, the first tight injection since March. Expect it to be a one-off event as imbalances loosened considerably this week due to stronger wind generation. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 3075 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +171 BCF. The year-over-year deficit, on the other hand, inch lower by 3 BCF to -153 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas inventories remain at the third highest level for the date in the last 5 years, below only last year and 2020.
While the injection was overall bullish, only two out of the five storage regions actually recorded a bullish build. The East Region led the way with ...
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