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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Logs Third Straight Gain After Solid EIA Storage Withdrawal & Colder Early-January Outlook; Natural Gas Season-To-Date Storage Withdrawals At 5-Year Highs; Gas Demand To Rise Today As Colder Temperatures Shift Eastward; Big Draws This Weekend To Fade As Warmer Air Arrives In Time For Christmas, But Inventories Still Likely To Flip To A Year-Over-Year Deficit
Friday, December 20, 2024
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In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for December 7-13, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories fell by -125 BCF. This was a slight 2 BCF larger than my projection and a solid 33 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, the withdrawal averaged 2.6 BCF/day or 18 BCF/week tight, or bullish, versus the 5-year average, similar to last week. It means that more than half of the week’s bullishness was driven by supportive supply/demand factors with the remainder driven by colder-than-normal temperatures. With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 3622 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average narrowed to +132 BCF. The year-over-year surplus also contracted to just +20 BCF. As shown in the Figure to the right, natural gas inventories are their second highest level in the last 5 years, but are quickly gaining on 2023 and—spoiler alert--will undoubtedly fall below that level in next week’s Report.
Four out the of five storag...
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